Tuesday, July 20, 2010

Geojit BNP Paribas Financial Services Ltd & Sharekhan Ltd into Simran Farms now

Looking at the latest shareholding pattern for Simran Farms http://www.bseindia.com/shareholding/shareholdingPattern_60.asp?scripcd=519566&qtrid=66
It is evident that stable and strong hands are getting into stocks.
We need to revisit Simran Farms after their Q1 and I am expecting a dividend within next 18 months.

Regards

Monday, July 19, 2010

Only Big Poultry players will survive

Just to re-emphasis the importance of holding on to winning companies, Hawkins, TTK Prestige, Symphony, Relaxo are up between 5 to 10 times in the last 12 months. One does not need many opportunities in a lifetime to build sizeable capital.

It is my opinion (everyone has one) that you diversify your portfolio to 10 or so stocks, get out of cyclicals at this juncture like steel, cement, infrastructure (china bubble factor).

The article below explains why only top five poultry companies will survive and thrive in India.

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India: Thousands of poultry farms closing
//01 May 2009 
Thousands of smaller poultry farmers are shutting their doors in Andhra Pradesh, said to be the "worst crisis" in over 30 years in the country, as farmers struggle with high input costs, particularly feed. 

According to K.V.S. Subba Raju, Hyderabad Zonal Chairman of the National Egg Coordination Committee (NECC), there was a 100% rise in feed cost since 2008, reports The Hindu. He said that a tonne soya bean was now costing Rs.25,000, as against Rs.12,5000-13,000 in October/November last year. The maize support price to be paid is now Rs.800 after taxes, almost double from Rs.450-500 about two years back, he told The Hindu.

Raju expressed concern over the rising prices of the poultry feed ingredients, which was forcing thousands of small/marginal egg and chicken growers to close shop. “The price of feed has become a major factor of daily uncertainty facing the industry in the state, as a result of which units being run by small and marginal are just collapsing, their running having become unviable,” he said.

Poultry production dropping

He explained that a farmer had to get Rs.60 for a kg of broiler for achieving the breakeven level. But with the current-day price of Rs.58 a kg it was increasingly becoming difficult for small/marginal poultry farmers to continue since there was no guarantee of survival. As a consequence there was less production of both eggs and chicken. The current cost of producing an egg by a farmer was Rs.2.25, whereas it was being sold for Rs.1.76, minus the commission of the middleman.

As a solution to tide over the crisis, he wanted the Government to immediately ban forwarding trading in maize and soya meal, since it was being indulged in by “speculators who blocked their movement by resorting to hoarding.”

Source: worldpoultry.net

Saturday, July 17, 2010

Yet another Message Board

If you have anything to discuss, doubts to clarify from other fellow investors, feel empowered.

http://stocksindia.proboards.com

This is your forum and your platform.

Regards

Amit

Interview with Vet Doctor in Gujarat regarding Poultry Prospects

I had an interview with Dr Hemant Gupta, Anand, Gujarat.

Qs: Do you anticipate any serious outbreak in the current calendar in
poultry industry and level of preparedness within our industry.
>Well as such on mass scale i donot anticipate any seriuos outbreak of any disease in the calender year in poultry industry except a few sporadic incidences of H5N1 in eastern parts of India or localised cases of Ranikhet disease and Gumboro.
The level of preparedness is good as we havein our country good number
of trained Poultry consultants and Vaccines and Antimicrobial are
available without any shortage if sudden outbreaks are reported
anyway.

Qs: What are the main areas where Simran Farms has an advantage over other
poultry companies in India.
>In term of geograpical reach of Simran Farms Ltd. they have presence in Gujarat,Maharastra,M.P,Eastern U.P and Chattisgarh mainly; out of which in Gujarat Simaran is the leading market player in Broiler Chicken farmingwith a capacity of above 15 lakh birds across Gujarat State

Qs: What are the advantages of bigger poultry companies over smaller player
in this sector.
>Main advantages are:
1. They can plan their operation in a better way
2.If they make loss in one state ,they have oppurtunity to book profit
from operations in other state where broiler prices are higher
3.They can manage Human capital efficiently as people will prefer to
work in thier parent state where they work with full devotion and
commitment
4.they have better or improvised practices because of better R & D
facility and rich workforce

Tuesday, July 13, 2010

Amrit Banaspati - Looks Strong

While I dont have position in this one yet because my money is locked in other bets, but it looks very strong.

JVL Agro, KS Oils and Ruchi Soya have rewarded handsomely. 

http://www.amritbanaspati.com/

A few basis points improvement in efficiencies can add good kicker to bottomline.

Good Luck

Wednesday, July 7, 2010

Simran Farms | Macro Updates on Poultry

Good macro updates on poultry


http://www.worldpoultry.net/background/changing-dynamics-in-global-poultry-production-7650.html

http://www.worldpoultry.net/background/shifts-and-patterns-in-global-poultry-meat-trade-7661.html

http://www.worldpoultry.net/background/indias-poultry-industry-experiences-significant-growth-7656.html

Sunday, July 4, 2010

More research into Simran Farms

This is India's poultry hub:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Namakkal


Simran Farms is also doing this, energy from droppings:

http://www.siliconindia.com/shownews/Farmers_technology_turns_chicken_dropping_to_electricity-nid-68386.html

Mahesh a fellow investor who researched into Simran Farms deduced from his conversation that young generation Mr. Kawaljeet , Mr. Gurmeet and Mr. Avneet have been instrumental in providing a vision to consolidate all group operations of privately held companies into listed entity post 2005 and to try creating image.

Our discussion led us to believe that they are quite green and rookies in matters of investor relations. Some Mr. Tiwari I spoke with said company will declare dividend ( how soon ? before we get tired) and has no plans to enter retail just yet. This was slightly negative for me. Only slightly ,because company is busy consolidating and growing in other states on a model that works. Retail entry can be demanding on resources and one can wait till company becomes big in B2B segment and has werewithal.

Other conjectures are:

Chicken farms can mushroom like bacteria, hence supply glut can result.

Typical poultry cycle last 4 years but bird flu can strike anytime, next month too..

But other aspects that convince me are:

India is in long term uptrend of meat consumption. Chicken is religion neutral relatively.

Likelihood of company getting wiped out - Very low

Likelihood of 10-12 crore bottom line in couple of years (30 Rs eps) - Very high

Ex Venky's India (formerly Western Hatcheries) manager is now working with Simran Farms

http://www.brijj.com/dr-sanjay-chaudhari?wp=y